Monday, October 11, 2010

2010 10 08

Friday's payroll data came in - well - in my opinion fairly poor. The net result is further job less of about 95,000 in September much of it due to loss of temporary US census workers.

Private payroll (non-government jobs) did increase by 64,000 but that's losing momentum from 100,000+ in july and 93,000 increase in Aug. Also, more than half the job gains in Sep were in bar and restaurants industry - not exactly a place a lot of people are excited to work in.

But this data solidified one thing - that the US FED would certainly engage in a vigorous QE to try to stimulate economy.

Still, no huge actions in stocks, currencies or bonds. Generally stocks were up dollar was down and bonds were up - but all fairly slightly.

Commodities had a good day with just about everything up. I wonder if commodities complex was driven more generally on ags news - US WASDE report cut domestic crop harvest expectation second month in a row. The result was corn, soybean and wheat all being up by exchange limits. Sugar also rallied hugely on crop concerns. Gains in energy and metals were much more muted but we would take any up day.

Looking ahead the most important single piece of data is probably the FOMC meeting minutes to be released on Tuesday. Once again it seems all assets are being driven by politicians and central bankers.

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