2010 09 28

Poor consumer confidence didn’t hold the stock market back as stocks staged a late rally.
Bonds are up sharply today on another GREAT treasury auction this time 5 years. No doubt the expectation of QE is running high.
USD is getting punished again down against all currencies except GBP. Hence gold is up again (as is silver).

Richmond Fed survey came in way below expected at -2 in september from +11 in August. Market was expecting +6. September we are again seeing poor regional Fed surveys but then we got surprised by much better than expected ISM which was later confirmed by industrial production and durable goods data. Wonder if that would happen again.

WTI recovered somewhat very late after API data indicated a decent amount of draw in inventory.



Quiet day tomorrow in US but busier elsewhere: BoJ Tankan business sentiment survey, French consumer confidence, Euroland consumer and business confidence, KOF (Switzerland) leading indicator/business sentiment.






U.S. Crude Oil to Average $83 in 2011: Reuters Poll
• U.S. crude oil prices are forecast to average less than previously expected in 2011 due to weak demand and bulging inventories, according to the latest monthly Reuters poll.

China sets 2011 non-state crude and fuel oil quotas
• BEIJING, Sept 28 (Reuters) - China has set the 2011 non-state crude oil import quota at 29.1 million tonnes, 15 percent more than this year, as part of Beijing's commitments to the World Trade Organisation it joined nine years ago.
• The amount, equivalent to about 14 percent of China's total crude imports last year, will be allotted to traders outside the dominant four state traders -- Unipec, Chinaoil, Sinochem and Zhuhai Zhenrong -- but these non-state traders will have to sell back the crude they import to the oil duopoly Sinopec and PetroChina.