2010 08 09

Pretty light today in terms of economic data. The earnings season for Q2 is basically over.

EM continues to show very strong economic activities while developed world seems to be slowing down although definitely not in contraction territory – still don’t see anything that could cause a double dip.

Is now time to short some wheat?


Turkey looking strong – solid industrial activities along with low interest rate
• Industrial production in Turkey increased 10.2% in June compared with the same month of the previous year, the Turkish Statistical Institute said on Monday.
• This follows a 15.5% increase in the previous month. Industrial production has recorded positive year-on-year growth for the past seven months. Economists had forecast a 10.5% rise.
• Turkey has seen strong economic growth after it averted an economic collapse in 2002 by agreeing a strict recovery program with the International Monetary Fund. Since then, inflation has fallen rapidly, although unemployment and foreign debt remain major problems.
• The Turkish economy expanded 11.7% annually between January and March, the strongest pace of growth in nearly six years. But the central bank has kept interest rates at low levels, citing uncertainty in the global economy and high unemployment
• Arrash - what do you think about Turkey in the EM fund?

Taiwan export accelerates
• Taiwan's export growth accelerated in July with sharp increases in electronic and mineral product shipments, data released by the Ministry of Finance showed on Monday.
• Shipments to mainland China, which is the biggest export market of Taiwan, recorded an annual rise of 38.8% in July. Exports to the U.S. and Europe advanced 47% and 33.8%, respectively.
• Taiwan's economy relies heavily on the export sector. Official figures have shown that during the first quarter, the economy registered double-digit growth on the back of strong exports. The gross domestic product increased 13.3% year-over-year in the March quarter, faster than 9.1% expansion in the prior quarter, bolstered by a 42.2% jump in exports during the period.

France industrial confidence indicator stagnant while services confidence indicator drops
• French industrial sentiment indicator stabilized for the second month in July, while services confidence indicator dropped, survey data released by the Bank of France showed Monday.
• France has been one of the big bright spots in Europe along with Germany. Is France finally showing some slowdown?

Wheat panic ebbs, ample stocks blunt shortage fear – should we short wheat now???
• Panic buying of wheat subsided on global markets on Friday, sending prices tumbling as officials reassured markets that ample global supplies would prevent a repeat of the 2008 crisis that triggered food riots around the globe. Wheat fell some more on Monday.
• Russia's worst drought in 130 years -- and an export ban announced Thursday -- has sent world wheat soaring with U.S. wheat prices nearly doubling in the past month. Many traders said the market has now factored in most of the damage as mounting supply problems prompted speculators to pour money into the market.